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Ink Spo ts
Matt Paxton
Almost 44 years ago to the day, Ronald Reagan famously asked the audience in a televised debate with t he n - p r e s ide nt Jimmy Carter, “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?” Carter’s reelection campaign was already in trouble, but this one question cemented Carter’s defeat a little over a week later.
I remember watching that debate, and that question has been used in politics ever since. I’m interested in how that question might be answered today, by comparing number from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, published stock averages, CNBC, FRED and other readily obtainable sources.
First, let’s look at employment numbers. For October 2020, the unemployment rate was at 6.9 percent, down from a high of almost 15% in April of that year, according to the BLS. Approximately 751,000 people filed initial unemployment claims for the week ending Oct. 29, 2020.
The unemployment rate for the month of September 2024 was 4.1 percent. Average new weekly unemployment claims for September stood at 241,000.
Realtor.com said the median listing price for a home in September of 2020 was $350,000. The median listing price in September 2024 was $425,000.
The Dow Jones stock average stood at 26,501 at the close on Oct. 30, 2020. The Dow closed at 42,740 on Oct. 16, 2024.
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, median household income in 2020 was $67,521. Estimated median household income in 2023, the newest data from the Census Bureau, was $80,610. That’s a 19.3 percent gain.
The Consumer Price Index-Urban, a commonly used measure of inflation, stood at an annualized rate of 1.4 percent in September 2020. The same indicator in September 2024 was a 2.4 percent, without seasonal adjustment. But in between 2020 and 2024, the CPI rose to as high as 9 percent.
Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) said the average retail price of a pound of ground beef in September 2020 was $4.08. The September 2024 average price was $5.67, and increase of 39 percent. The average price of a dozen grade A large eggs was $1.41 in September, and rose to $3.82 last month. A 16-ouce loaf of white bread cost on average $1.49 in 2020 and $1.98 in September 2024, a 33 percent rise. A gallon of milk was $3.45 four years ago; last month, it cost $4.02. This website, fred.stlouisfed. org, has average prices on a wide range of products going back to 1996 and is fascinating to browse.
So, what’s the answer to the question, “Are you better off?”
Well, like life, it’s complicated. From a macro-economic point of view, the economy and by extension, all of us are better off. But from a micro- economic perspective, how each of us are faring in the economy, it’s harder to be completely positive.
Housing costs are up. But if you own your home, it’s worth a lot more. Higher costs for basic food items hurts particularly lower income people. Those households spend a larger percentage of their income on food and necessities. But, if you were one of the 750,000 people filing for unemployment compensation in 2020, and you have a job now, you may consider yourself better off.
The economy, though, is just one aspect of how we as a society are faring. Looking at everything from the status of small businesses, anxiety over Covid, public safety, the state of public discourse, political polarization, and the environment, the answer to Reagan’s question today is, for me, “I think I am, but there’s a lot of work to do.”
