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Dec. 31, 2024 Editor, The News-Gazette: How “huge” was the GOP win?
This isn’t a political question. It’s mathematical. Rank the presidential elections of the last 60 years by the winner’s vote percentage. Only two break 60%: 1964, Johnson: 61.1%, by 16 million votes; and 1972, Nixon: 60.7%, by 18 million votes. Because turnout varies, Nixon won by more votes but a smaller percentage than Johnson.
Most fall in the 50s: 1984, Reagan: 58.8%, by 17 million; 1988, Bush: 53.4%, by 7 million; 2008, Obama: 52.9%, by 9.5 million; 2020, Biden: 51.3%, by 7 million; 2012, Obama: 51.1%, by 5 million; 2004, Bush: 50.7%, by 3 million; 1980, *Reagan: 50.7%, by 7.5 million over Carter (Anderson garnered 5.7 million votes); 1976, Carter: 50.1%, by 1.7 million.
Reagan’s first election needs an asterisk because if you combine Carter and the third-party candidate, Reagan’s vote count barely beats Carter’s from the previous election.
Now, the below 50% winners: 2024, Trump: 49.8%, by 2.3 million; *1996, Clinton: 49.2%, by 8.2 million above Dole (Perot garnered 8 million votes).
Clinton’s second election needs an asterisk because his vote count advantage drops to .2 million if Dole and the thirdparty candidate are combined, leaving Clinton the smallest winning majority count of the last 60 years.
But the next two president are nonmajority winners. Both lost the popular vote: 2000, Bush: 47.9%, -.5 million; 2016, Trump: 46.1%, -2.9 million.
And the bottom two are plurality (rather than majority) winners due to historically strong thirdparty candidates: 1968, Nixon: 43.4%, by 5 million above Humphrey (Wallace with 9.9 million votes); 1992, Clinton: 43%, by 5.8 million above Bush (Perot got 19.7 million So of the last 16 elections, Trump is at number 11: the smallest majority winner of two-candidate races in the last 60 years.
Of the seven presidential races of the 21st century, he beat only his own and Bush’s popular-votelosing votes).
victories.
2024 marks no mandate, no major electoral shift. Historically, Trump’s victory is the smallest of potatoes. CHRIS GAVALER Professor of English, W&L
